{"id":51403,"date":"2023-07-07T13:11:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-07T17:11:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/?p=51403"},"modified":"2023-07-11T07:48:06","modified_gmt":"2023-07-11T11:48:06","slug":"kenya-situation-update-july-2023-al-shabaab-attacks-surge-ahead-of-somalia-kenya-border-reopening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/2023\/07\/07\/kenya-situation-update-july-2023-al-shabaab-attacks-surge-ahead-of-somalia-kenya-border-reopening\/","title":{"rendered":"Kenya Situation Update: July 2023 | Al-Shabaab Attacks Surge Ahead of Somalia-Kenya Border Reopening"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row full_width=&#8221;stretch_row&#8221; el_class=&#8221;new-header&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1688749171466{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 45px !important;background-image: url(https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/kenyabanner.png?id=42855) !important;}&#8221;][vc_column offset=&#8221;vc_col-md-offset-1 vc_col-md-6&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1688749142805{margin-bottom: 15px !important;}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 600; font-size: 25px; color: #44799a; margin-bottom: 0;\">Situation Update | July 2023<\/p>\n<h1><b>Kenya: Al-Shabaab Attacks Surge Ahead of Somalia-Kenya Border Reopening<\/b><\/h1>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1651672610443{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]<strong>7 July 2023<\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1679329422845{padding-bottom: 30px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column offset=&#8221;vc_col-md-offset-1 vc_col-md-10&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1679073476636{padding: 25px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1688749819284{padding-bottom: 30px !important;}&#8221;]<strong><a href=\"\/africa\/horn-of-africa\/kenya\/\">&lt; Back to Kenya Hub<\/a><\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h2><b>Kenya at a Glance: 3-30 June 2023<\/b><\/h2>\n<h3><b>VITAL TRENDS<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">ACLED records nearly 100 political violence events and approximately 70\u00a0fatalities in Kenya during the reporting period. Al-Shabaab activity accounted\u00a0for over 17% of all political violence.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">Garissa county had the highest number of fatalities, with at least 14 during the reporting period. Mandera and Lamu counties followed, with at least eight and seven, respectively. Al-Shabaab activity contributed to nearly half all reported fatalities.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">The most common event type was riots, with over 60 events, followed by protests, with over 50 events. Vigilante groups were involved in more than half the riot events in Kenya during the reporting period.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1679049442965{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column offset=&#8221;vc_col-md-offset-1 vc_col-md-10&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;51406&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column offset=&#8221;vc_col-md-offset-2 vc_col-md-8&#8243;][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h2><b>Al-Shabaab Attacks Surge Ahead of Somalia-Kenya Border Reopening<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Al-Shabaab\u2019s violent activity grew significantly in June, with militants launching over a dozen attacks targeting security forces and civilians. The attacks took place at a crucial moment, as Somalia and Kenya have entered into an agreement to reopen the border points closed since 2011, and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) begins to withdraw its troops from Somalia.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"1\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-1\">1<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-1\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.africanews.com\/2023\/05\/15\/kenya-somalia-agreement-to-reopen-their-land-border\/\">Africanews, \u2018Kenya-Somalia agreement to reopen their land border,\u2019 15 May 2023<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/somalia-facing-uncertainty-as-african-troops-leave\/7141702.html\">Mohamed Olad Hassan, \u2018Somalia Facing Uncertainty as African Troops Leave,\u2019 Voice of America, 17 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> These developments have raised fears of a further escalation of violence in the coming months. The heightened al-Shabaab activity in Kenya comes after the launch of a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/2023\/03\/03\/context-assessment-heightened-political-violence-in-somalia\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">counter-insurgency operation in Somalia<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which has reportedly driven out militants to neighboring countries. Moreover, the recent rainfall in northern Kenya has enriched the vegetation, thus providing better hideouts for militants.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"2\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-2\">2<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-2\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nation.africa\/kenya\/counties\/squeezed-in-somalia-shabaab-militants-make-northern-kenya-their-playground-4269614\">Manase Otsialo, \u2018Squeezed in Somalia, Al Shabaab militants make northern Kenya their playground,\u2019 Daily Nation, 14 June 2023<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.standardmedia.co.ke\/north-eastern\/article\/2001475562\/ibrahim-mandera-county-seeks-ways-to-deal-with-insecurity-radicalisationadan-ali\">Ibrahim Adan Ali, \u2018Mandera County seeks ways to deal with insecurity, radicalisation,\u2019 The Standard Kenya, 20 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This report discusses the types of attacks and regions affected based on ACLED data. It also explores reasons for the escalation of militant activity, and concludes with a discussion of the government response.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Al-Shabaab Patterns of Violence<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ACLED records 19 political violence incidents involving al-Shabaab in June \u2013 a nearly twofold increase compared to the monthly average this year (<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">see graph below<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">). For comparison, in June 2022, only eight political violence events involving al-Shabaab were recorded, while 11 and three were recorded in June 2021 and 2020, respectively. The current attacks have reportedly left at least 26 security officers dead and dozens injured. The majority of events are carried out through remotely activated weapons, such as improvised explosive devices (IEDs). In recent years, IEDs have become al-Shabaab\u2019s weapon of choice, as IED materials are sourced locally and are easy to construct and transport.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"3\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-3\">3<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-3\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"3\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ctc.westpoint.edu\/foreign-technology-or-local-expertise-al-shabaabs-ied-capability\/\">Daisy Muibu and Benjamin Nickels, \u2018Foreign Technology or Local Expertise? Al-Shabaab\u2019s IED Capability,\u2019 Combating Terrorism Center, November 2017<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssoar.info\/ssoar\/bitstream\/handle\/document\/75744\/ssoar-pos-2021-10-mwinga_et_al-Prevalence_of_Improvised_Explosives_Devices.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y&amp;lnkname=ssoar-pos-2021-10-mwinga_et_al-Prevalence_of_Improvised_Explosives_Devices.pdf\">Samson Njeru Mwinga and Xavier Francis Ichani, \u2018Prevalence of Improvised Explosives Devices and Related Terrorist Attacks in Garissa County, Kenya (2017-2021),\u2019 Path of Science, 21 October 2021<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> While the main targets of militant attacks have been Kenyan security forces, four instances of violence targeting civilians by al-Shabaab have also been recorded, resulting in at least eight reported fatalities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51407\" src=\"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image3.png 300w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image3.png 1024w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image3.png 768w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image3.png 50w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image3.png 1536w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image3.png 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Almost half the recorded political violence involving al-Shabaab occurred in Mandera county, which borders Gedo region in Somalia. Al-Shabaab activity was also recorded in Wajir and Garissa counties in the northeastern region of Kenya, as well as Lamu in the coastal region. In Banissa sub-county in Mandera, al-Shabaab militants launched an attack on a police base in Guba town on 19 June. Police forces repelled the attack. The following day, militants targeted a police vehicle escorting a public service vehicle in the town, reportedly killing at least two officers and a civilian. A police rescue team was deployed to the area in response but was also targeted by the militants.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In Garissa and Lamu counties, al-Shabaab used IEDs in their attack against security forces. In Garissa county \u2013 where the most reported fatalities were recorded \u2013 an IED attack by militants targeted military forces patrolling along the Garissa-Lamu border. The detonation destroyed their vehicle and reportedly killed at least eight soldiers. Following the attack, police reservists clashed with the militants in the area, incurring casualties. Police reservists are recruited from locals to bolster security by supplementing regular police in \u2018hostile\u2019 areas for their familiarity with the local terrain. They have been involved in fighting pastoralist militias in the North Rift region, and al-Shabaab militants in the counties bordering Somalia.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"4\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-4\">4<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-4\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"4\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.garoweonline.com\/en\/world\/africa\/civilians-in-northeastern-kenya-targeted-by-both-al-shabaab-and-state\">Abuga Makori, \u2018Civilians in northeastern Kenya targeted by both Al-Shabaab and state,\u2019 Garowe Online, 18 June 2020<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Similar incidents were also reported in Lamu West sub-county as two subsequent IED attacks between Pandanguo and Witu reportedly resulted in over a dozen casualties among Kenyan security officers. The violence also targeted civilians in Lamu West sub-county. On 24 June, a group of over 30 men \u2013 identifying themselves as \u2018Original al-Shabaab\u2019 \u2013 attacked the villages of Salama and Juhudi near the Witu Forest and reportedly killed five men, including a student. The militants have reportedly created hideouts in the Witu Forest, where they also hold their abductees.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"5\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-5\">5<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-5\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"5\"><a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/kenya-attacks-somalia-alshabab-a26d59a3f2c923f34625886fda568393\">Associated Press, \u2018Suspected militants from Somalia kill 5 people in Kenya border village,\u2019 26 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The map below illustrates the spatial distribution of al-Shabaab\u2019s activity in June across eastern Kenya.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51405\" src=\"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image1.png 300w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image1.png 1024w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image1.png 768w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image1.png 50w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image1.png 1536w, https:\/\/acleddata.com\/acleddatanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image1.png 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What is Behind the Surge in Militant Attacks?<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kenya has contributed to security operations against al-Shabaab since October 2011, when it sent troops to Somalia following a spate of cross-border attacks.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"6\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-6\">6<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-6\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"6\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/africa\/2011-11-15\/why-kenya-invaded-somalia\">Daniel Branch, \u2018Why Kenya Invaded Somalia: The Opening of an Aggressive New Chapter,\u2019 Foreign Affairs, 15 November 2011<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Beginning in 2012, it also contributed troops to the African Union Mission in Somalia, and its successor, ATMIS.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"7\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-7\">7<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-7\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"7\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hiiraan.com\/news4\/2012\/Mar\/23150\/kenyan_forces_ready_for_amisom_mission.aspx\">Hiiraan Online, \u2018Kenyan forces ready for AMISOM mission,\u2019 10 March 2012<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Moreover, a few months ago, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti vowed to send additional troops to support the counter-insurgency operation against the group.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"8\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-8\">8<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-8\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"8\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/somalia-s-neighbors-to-send-additional-troops-to-fight-al-shabab-\/6986748.html#:~:text=Djibouti%2C%20Ethiopia%20and%20Kenya%20have,official%20said%20March%201%2C%202023.\">Harun Maruf, \u2018Somalia&#8217;s Neighbors to Send Additional Troops to Fight Al-Shabab,\u2019 Voice of America, 2 March 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The offensive against al-Shabaab included increased bombardments of militants\u2019 hideouts and re-capturing strategic al-Shabaab strongholds in Somalia (<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">for more on the counter-insurgency operation, see ACLED\u2019s <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/africa\/horn-of-africa\/somalia\/\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Somalia country hub<\/span><\/i><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The offensive has reportedly dislodged groups of al-Shabaab militants from Somalia, forcing them to take refuge in neighboring Kenya.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"9\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-9\">9<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-9\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"9\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.the-star.co.ke\/news\/2023-06-27-why-terror-attacks-have-increased-in-northern-kenya\/\">Cyrus Ombati, \u2018Explainer: Why terror attacks have increased in Northern Kenya,\u2019 The Star Kenya, 27 June 2023<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/nation.africa\/kenya\/counties\/squeezed-in-somalia-shabaab-militants-make-northern-kenya-their-playground-4269614\">Manase Otsialo, \u2018Squeezed in Somalia, Al Shabaab militants make northern Kenya their playground,\u2019 Daily Nation, 14 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Moreover, the recent rainfall in northern Kenya has improved vegetation cover in the grazing areas, providing better hideouts for militants.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"10\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-10\">10<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-10\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"10\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nation.africa\/kenya\/counties\/squeezed-in-somalia-shabaab-militants-make-northern-kenya-their-playground-4269614\">Manase Otsialo, \u2018Squeezed in Somalia, Al Shabaab militants make northern Kenya their playground,\u2019 Daily Nation, 14 June 2023<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.standardmedia.co.ke\/north-eastern\/article\/2001475562\/ibrahim-mandera-county-seeks-ways-to-deal-with-insecurity-radicalisationadan-ali\">Ibrahim Adan Ali, \u2018Mandera County seeks ways to deal with insecurity, radicalisation,\u2019 The Standard Kenya, 20 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This has made it an opportune time for al-Shabaab to move across the border and escalate their attacks against Kenyan security forces. Reports of al-Shabaab militants crossing the border and making movements in Mandera and Wajir counties emerged beginning in May.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The recent simultaneous changes in the National Intelligence Service and the Directorate of Military Intelligence by President William Ruto may have left a security void that the militants are exploiting to launch attacks.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"11\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-11\">11<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-11\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"11\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pd.co.ke\/news\/why-al-shabaab-attacks-are-back-in-north-eastern-186560\/\">Mathew Ndungu, \u2018Why al Shabaab attacks are back in North Eastern,\u2019 People Daily, 22 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> For instance, an intelligence report on 11 June warned of impending attacks against security officials. No measures, however, were adopted to prevent the attacks, including the attack along the Garissa-Lamu border, which claimed the lives of eight police officers.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"12\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-12\">12<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-12\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"12\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nation.africa\/kenya\/news\/intelligence-report-warned-of-imminent-al-shabaab-attacks-4273030\">Nyaboga Kiage and Amina Wako, \u2018Intelligence report warned of imminent al-Shabaab attacks,\u2019 Daily Nation, 17 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Additionally, security officers are rendered vulnerable targets for al-Shabaab attacks as they lack access to sophisticated equipment. For example, IEDs cause severe damage to both the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles and Armored Personnel Carriers currently available to security forces.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"13\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-13\">13<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-13\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"13\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nation.africa\/kenya\/counties\/mandera\/special-police-unit-feels-abandoned-in-mandera-4281442\">Steve Otieno and Amina Wako, \u2018Special police unit feels \u2018abandoned\u2019 in Mandera,\u2019 Daily Nation, 24 June 2023<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pd.co.ke\/news\/why-al-shabaab-attacks-are-back-in-north-eastern-186560\/\">Mathew Ndungu, \u2018Why al Shabaab attacks are back in North Eastern,\u2019 People Daily, 22 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The recent budget cuts have also impacted the officers at the frontline, who have not reportedly received their stipends and feel \u2018abandoned.\u2019<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"14\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-14\">14<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-14\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"14\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.the-star.co.ke\/news\/2023-06-27-why-terror-attacks-have-increased-in-northern-kenya\/\">Cyrus Ombati, \u2018Explainer: Why terror attacks have increased in Northern Kenya,\u2019 The Star Kenya, 27 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> There are also claims of intelligence leakage to militants, particularly on the movement of security forces, which have not been confirmed.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"15\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-15\">15<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-15\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"15\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.k24tv.co.ke\/news\/govt-intelligence-leaked-to-al-shabaab-107102\/\">Lucy Njogu,\u2019Gov\u2019t intelligence is being leaked to Al-Shabaab \u2013 Analyst,\u2019 K24 TV, 26 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In May, Kenya and Somalia agreed to reopen three border crossings in Mandera, Lamu, and Garissa for the first time since they were closed in 2011 to curb attacks by the militants on Kenyan soil.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"16\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-16\">16<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-16\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"16\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theeastafrican.co.ke\/tea\/news\/east-africa\/kenya-agrees-to-reopen-somalia-border-after-12-year-closure-4235656\">Mary Wambui, \u2018Kenya agrees to reopen Somalia border after 12-year closure,\u2019 The EastAfrican, 15 May 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The measure is expected to enhance security cooperation, boost trade, and increase cross-border movement.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"17\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-17\">17<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-17\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"17\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessdailyafrica.com\/bd\/economy\/what-re-opening-of-kenya-somalia-border-points-means--4235854\">Dominic Omondi, \u2018What re-opening of Kenya, Somalia border points means,\u2019 Business Daily, 16 May 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The two countries had planned to reopen the border points in three phases by mid-August,<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"18\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-18\">18<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-18\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"18\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theeastafrican.co.ke\/tea\/news\/east-africa\/kenya-agrees-to-reopen-somalia-border-after-12-year-closure-4235656\">Mary Wambui, \u2018Kenya agrees to reopen Somalia border after 12-year closure,\u2019 The EastAfrican, 15 May 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> but Kenya has recently decided to delay the reopening for an unspecified period until the security threats are neutralized.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"19\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-19\">19<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-19\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"19\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.standardmedia.co.ke\/national\/article\/2001476584\/kenya-somalia-border-reopening-to-delay-due-to-security-threats\">Mate Tongola, \u2018Kenya-Somalia border reopening to delay due to security threats,\u2019 The Standard Kenya, 5 July 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Some sources claim that business cartels that smuggle goods like sugar have used the militants to stir fear and prevent the reopening of the border, which would impact their illicit business activities.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"20\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-20\">20<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-20\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"20\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nation.africa\/kenya\/counties\/squeezed-in-somalia-shabaab-militants-make-northern-kenya-their-playground-4269614\">Manase Otsialo, \u2018Squeezed in Somalia, Al Shabaab militants make northern Kenya their playground,\u2019 Daily Nation, 14 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Others claim that the attacks likely aim to curtail government efforts to open up the affected areas for development as al-Shabaab has been long exploiting the marginalization of people living in those areas to recruit militants.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"21\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-21\">21<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-21\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"21\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/three-kenyan-soldiers-killed-in-suspected-al-shabab-attack\/7143622.html\">Ahmed Hussein, \u2018Three Kenyan Soldiers Killed in Suspected Al-Shabab Attack,\u2019 Voice of America, 19 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The government, however, has dismissed links between the reopening of the border points and the heightened al-Shabaab activity.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"22\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-22\">22<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-22\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"22\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.the-star.co.ke\/news\/realtime\/2023-06-22-border-reopening-not-linked-to-ied-attacks-ministry-says\/\">Allan Kisia, \u2018Border reopening not linked to IED attacks, ministry says,\u2019 The Star Kenya, 22 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Government Response<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Kenyan government has constructed 14 fully equipped forward operating bases along the Kenya-Somalia border in preparation for reopening the border and the withdrawal of ATMIS forces from Somalia.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"23\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-23\">23<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-23\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"23\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nation.africa\/kenya\/counties\/squeezed-in-somalia-shabaab-militants-make-northern-kenya-their-playground-4269614\">Manase Otsialo, \u2018Squeezed in Somalia, Al Shabaab militants make northern Kenya their playground,\u2019 Daily Nation, 14 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> In addition, it has announced its commitment to providing security forces with sophisticated equipment, such as armored personnel carriers capable of detecting explosives, in the coming months.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"24\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-24\">24<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-24\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"24\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pd.co.ke\/news\/why-al-shabaab-attacks-are-back-in-north-eastern-186560\/\">Mathew Ndungu, \u2018Why al Shabaab attacks are back in North Eastern,\u2019 People Daily, 22 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Security agencies have also been leveraging tip-offs from local elders and information on how to deal with the militants.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"25\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-25\">25<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-25\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"25\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nation.africa\/kenya\/counties\/squeezed-in-somalia-shabaab-militants-make-northern-kenya-their-playground-4269614\">Manase Otsialo, \u2018Squeezed in Somalia, Al Shabaab militants make northern Kenya their playground,\u2019 Daily Nation, 14 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This approach aims to go beyond the militant security challenges, to also tackle issues around inter-clan clashes.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"26\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-26\">26<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-26\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"26\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.standardmedia.co.ke\/north-eastern\/article\/2001475562\/ibrahim-mandera-county-seeks-ways-to-deal-with-insecurity-radicalisationadan-ali\">Ibrahim Adan Ali, \u2018Mandera County seeks ways to deal with insecurity, radicalisation,\u2019 The Standard Kenya, 20 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Finally, the Kenyan government has indicated its readiness to extend its stay in Somalia along with Uganda and Ethiopia past the end of the ATMIS mandate in December 2024.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"27\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-27\">27<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-27\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"27\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.the-star.co.ke\/news\/2023-06-26-ruto-kdf-to-extend-stay-in-somalia-due-to-increased-attacks\/\">Cyrus Ombati, \u2018Ruto: KDF to extend stay in Somalia due to increased attacks,\u2019 The Star Kenya, 26 June 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> However, even if effective, these measures will likely take a long time to bear fruit as the government remains under criticism for its failure to curb al-Shabaab activity in areas bordering Somalia. According to ACLED\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/early-warning-research-hub\/conflict-alert-system\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CAST<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> predictions, the increase in violence in eastern counties is likely to continue in July 2023. The government has launched an operation along the border, which will likely result in sustained levels of violence in the area in the short term.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--expands-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"28\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-28\">28<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000005c7c1bfe000000004d7fb839_51403-28\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"28\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.the-star.co.ke\/news\/2023-07-05-on-the-radar-kenya-starts-major-operation-against-al-shabaab\/\">Maureen Kinyanjui, \u2018On the radar: Kenya starts major operation against al Shabaab,\u2019 The Star Kenya, 5 July 2023<\/a><\/span><\/span>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysis of the latest political violence and protest trends in Somalia, as of June 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":51414,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":[],"meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[19,612],"tags":[22],"country":[],"region":[172],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.10 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Kenya Situation Update: July 2023 | Al-Shabaab Attacks Surge Ahead of Somalia-Kenya Border Reopening<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analysis of the latest political violence and protest trends in Somalia, as of June 2023.\" 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