Regional Overview
Middle East
June 2023
Posted: 6 July 2023
Iran: Crackdown on Kurdish militants in northwestern Iran
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted armed operations throughout June against the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) and other Kurdish armed groups in Kurdish-majority districts bordering Turkey and Iraq. IRGC forces shelled Kurdish positions and engaged in armed clashes that left at least three Iranian soldiers dead. IRGC operations focused on the provinces of West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, and Kermanshah where, overall, political violence increased ninefold in June compared to the month prior. This most recent activity comes after Iranian state forces targeted Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan in 2022, accusing them of inciting unrest inside Iran (for more see the ACLED 2023 Conflict Watchlist Report). Amid the increasing violence, the IRGC appointed two new regional commanders on 26 June.1Annika Ganzeveld et al., ‘Iran Update, June 26, 2023,’ Critical Threats, 26 June 2023. Several Iranian Kurdish armed groups – including PJAK and others – have been engaged in armed struggle against the Iranian government for decades demanding cultural rights, autonomy, and in some cases, outright independence.
Iraq: PKK-Turkey fighting expands to Erbil and Sulaymanyya after Turkish presidential election
Following the re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 28 May, Turkish forces have expanded the geographic scope of their operations against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq. Between February and May 2023, Turkish activity was predominantly concentrated in the northern Duhok province. However, in June, Turkish airstrike and artillery events surged in northern Erbil province by over 200% compared to the month prior, reaching the highest level recorded by ACLED since October 2021. Similarly, the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) broadened its operations by assassinating three PKK officials near Chamchamal city and a member of the PKK-linked Mesopotamian Workers Union in al-Sulaymaniyya. Previously, MIT operations were primarily focused in Sinjar, Ninewa province, and the rural mountains of Duhok province.
Meanwhile, on 13 June, the PKK ended a unilateral ceasefire that began in February, citing continued anti-PKK operations.2Rudaw Staff, ‘PKK ends unilateral truce with Turkey: KCK,’ Rudaw, 13 June 2023 The ceasefire served the official purpose of facilitating earthquake rescue efforts. It also aimed to support opposition parties in Turkish elections, anticipating that their victory could lead to renewed peace talks with the Turkish state.3Amberin Zaman, ‘Did Kurdish PKK call off truce with Turkey to make peace or war?,’ Al Monitor, 14 June 2023 Following Erdogan’s re-election, PKK attacks surged in Erbil and Duhok provinces, including explosive attacks on Turkish forces – the first since late 2022. Turkey and the PKK are engaged in a long-standing conflict over ethnic rights in southeastern Turkey and across the border in Iraq and Syria.
Israel and Palestine: Heightened tensions in the West Bank following Israeli raid on the Jenin camp
Tensions in the West Bank continued to be at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict last month. ACLED records a 20% increase in political violence in the West Bank in June compared to the month prior. Three major incidents drove the escalation of violence. On 19 June, Israeli forces raided Jenin city to arrest wanted Palestinians, prompting deadly clashes with militants from Fatah, Hamas, and PIJ. The clashes resulted in the reported deaths of five militants and two civilians, and injuries to at least 90 Palestinians and eight Israeli soldiers. The raid ignited a cycle of violence and retaliations. On 20 June, Hamas militants attacked a gas station in the Eli settlement near Nablus, killing at least four Israelis before being shot and killed by armed settlers. In response to the attack, on 21 June, hundreds of settlers attacked the Palestinian village of Turmus Ayya while under the protection of the Israeli military. Settlers destroyed Palestinian property and exchanged fire with Palestinian gunmen, killing one Palestinian and injuring 13 others.
Lebanon: Rare outbreak of violence in lands disputed with Israel
Tensions flared on the border between Lebanon and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, resulting in a fivefold increase of political disorder in the southern Hasbaya district in June compared to the monthly average of the year prior. On 7 June, a Lebanese farmer prevented an Israeli bulldozer from carrying out digging operations on his land at Kafr Shuba. The video of the incident went viral, triggering a wave of demonstrations against Israeli activities.4Abdallah Muntasser, ‘Lebanese farmer defies Israeli bulldozer along the border: Protest scheduled Friday,’ L’Orient Today, 8 June 2023 On 9 and 11 June, rioters tried to break the border fence around Kafr Shuba and hurled stones towards Israeli forces who responded by firing tear gas. Lebanese forces and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) were deployed to contain the clashes.
According to pro-Israeli sources, demonstrations were allegedly orchestrated by Hizbullah, who also established two manned observation posts in the nearby Shibaa farms – an area claimed by Lebanon, Israel, and Syria.5ANI News, ‘Hezbollah fans flames of new Israeli border tensions,’ 12 June 2023 Meanwhile, on 21 and 22 June, several demonstrators marched towards al-Majdiyya in solidarity with protests by members of the Druze community against Israel’s plans to build wind turbines on the Golan Heights.6Rina Bassist, ‘Why are Golan Heights Druze protesting Israel’s wind turbines project?,’ Al Monitor, 22 June 2023 The situation on the Lebanese-Israeli borders remains fraught due to Israel’s continued occupation of the Kafr Shuba hills and Shibaa farms, which were seized during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and are subject to competing claims by Lebanon.
Yemen: Heightened AQAP violence in Shabwa
In Yemen, political violence involving al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remained at high levels in June after recording a sharp increase in May. The group continued to use drones in Shabwa and IEDs in Abyan governorate to target forces affiliated with the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC). In response to AQAP’s novel drone strategy – which was first documented in May 2023 – two suspected US drone strikes targeted AQAP positions in Shabwa, killing at least one AQAP leader. Combined with several AQAP ground assaults against STC forces, these events contributed to June recording the highest levels of violence involving AQAP in Shabwa since the regionalization of the Yemen war in March 2015. AQAP activity in Shabwa increased over fourfold in June compared to the average of the previous six months. Following the Houthis’ ouster of the internationally recognized government from Sanaa in 2014, Yemen spiraled into a war that has been exploited by AQAP to expand its activity (for more on AQAP activity in Yemen in recent years, see this ACLED report).
Middle East: Quran burning in Sweden sparks demonstrations across the region
On 27 June, the first day of the Muslim festivity of Eid al-Adha, an Iraqi refugee tore up a copy of the Quran and set it on fire outside Stockholm’s main mosque, in Sweden. The Swedish police had authorized the sit-in – in line with the country’s free-speech policy – but later charged the protester with “agitation against an ethnic or national group.”7France 24, ‘Man sets fire to Koran pages outside Stockholm mosque,’ 28 June 2023 Furthermore, Sweden’s Foreign Minister condemned the act, describing it as “Islamophobic.”8Al Jazeera, ‘Sweden government condemns ‘Islamophobic’ Quran burning,’ 2 July 2023
The incident sparked outrage and demonstrations in the Muslim world. Several countries summoned Swedish ambassadors in protest,9Al Jazeera, ‘Sweden government condemns ‘Islamophobic’ Quran burning,’ 2 July 2023 while others – including Morocco and Jordan – recalled their ambassadors from Stockholm.10Alys Davies, ‘Sweden Quran burning: Protesters storm embassy in Baghdad,’ BBC, 29 June 2023 In the Middle East, ACLED records demonstrations in Bahrain, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Yemen in response to the Quran burning. Iraq saw the highest number of events, with prominent Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr calling for demonstrations demanding the removal of the Swedish ambassador,11The Guardian, ‘Iraq protesters breach Sweden’s embassy over Qur’an burning,’ 29 June 2023 resulting in a crowd briefly storming the Swedish embassy in Baghdad.12Alys Davies, ‘Sweden Quran burning: Protesters storm embassy in Baghdad,’ BBC, 29 June 2023
In January 2023, a Quran-burning incident triggered widespread demonstrations in the Middle East, particularly in Turkey, Yemen, and Iraq. Following the incident, Turkey’s President Erdogan stated that Sweden should not expect Turkish support for its NATO membership.13Al Jazeera, ‘Erdogan warns Sweden on NATO bid after Quran burning protest,’ 23 January 2023 Similarly, the recent incident could impact the upcoming NATO meeting on 6 July, where Sweden’s membership will be discussed.14Matt Mathers, ‘Man tears up and burns Quran in protest approved by Swedish police,’ Independent, 29 June 2023
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