The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months. This report reflects the April 2023 update of global forecasts.
Multiple spikes in violent activity were ultimately reported throughout the month, including over 25 incidents of violence against civilians on the day of the gubernatorial election. In total, ACLED recorded 239 events across Nigeria in March, a number slightly below the forecasted amount and 12% below the yearly average.
Looking forward, CAST predicts 255 events in April, a 5% change from the 12-month average. For more on political violence around the Nigerian elections, see ACLED's Nigeria Election Violence Tracker.
This increase in explosions/remote violence via Military-Rebel interactions is an important driver for April forecasts in the country, where CAST predicts about 130 events, 27% of which are explosions/remote violence. In a relatively high activity area like Nord province, about 25% of the forecasted events for April are attribuable to March's explosions/remote violence and Military-Rebel interactions. For more on Burkina Faso and Islamist-related violence in the Sahel, see ACLED's IS Sahel Actor Profile.
According to CAST forecasts, this pattern will likely continue in April, with 502 events forecasted, a majority of which are incidents of violence against civilians. This activity is driven not only by consistent hotspots like Guanajuato and Michoacán, but also by increasingly severe violence in Sonora. For more on Mexico, see ACLED's Regional Overviews for Latin America & the Caribbean.
CAST predictions for April suggest a slight reversal of the recent downward trend, with 348 total events across the country, marking a 19% increase from the number of events recorded in March. This predicted uptick is driven primarily by the forecasted return of explosions/remote violence in Duhok to levels consistent with those before the earthquakes. For more on Iraq, see the ACLED Watchlist 2023.