The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months. This report reflects the March 2023 update of global forecasts.
Significant increases relative to the 12-month average in explosions/remote violence events are predicted in nearly half of all oblasts, while increased battle events are predicted in mostly the northern and eastern regions. Meanwhile, violence against civilians events are predicted to decrease across many oblasts around the country, including Kherson and Kyiv, while increasing elsewhere, as in Sumy or Mykolaiv. For more on the Ukraine conflict, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.
Several ACLED CAST indicators featured heavily in the formation of the predictions for each administrative division in Myanmar this month. In particular, many administrative divisions' forecasts relied on the number of events in the previous month involving the military against political militias, meaning this indicator was a meaningful predictor in most areas of the country. For more on Myanmar, see the ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2023.
In Oromia, 36 events are predicted in March, compared to an average of 57 events per month in the preceding 12-month period. This prediction is largely driven by the number of battles events from the previous month, but other factors like violent interactions between the Ethiopian military and civilians as well as strategic development events from the previous month are also contributing to the forecast. For more on Ethiopia, visit the Ethiopia Peace Observatory.
In São Paulo and Minas Gerais - states which saw high levels of post-election demonstrations in late 2022 - interactions between political militias and civilians in previous months contributed significantly to the March 2023 forecast of 38 and 23 violence against civilians events, respectively. For more on Brazil, see the ACLED report Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden.
Multiple western governorates are forecasted to see significant declines in the number of events in March 2023, including Taizz, Sanaa, and Marib - although in places like Taizz, the predicted event count remains high. These declines are driven largely by the number of explosions/remote violence and battles events in the previous month. For more on Yemen, see the ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2023.